HBS, I think the big problem with not having a crystal ball is that every decision carries risk and loss with it. Every time we make a decision *for* something we also make a decision against something else, and we put ourselves in danger of losing the thing we've risked for. I'm not trying to be negative, here - it's just that all coins have two sides.
What I notice in myself is that I try NOT to make decisions, try NOT to risk anything or lose anything. I think maybe that's because when I was growing up, whenever I made a decision or took a positive action, I kind of had my nose rubbed in the risk and the loss, like any negative outcome was something that could be avoided if only I was good/smart/psychic enough.
The example that's jumping to mind is that once in my early teens I was supposed to help paint our (very sloped) house roof and I was up there on my own. The paint tin slipped, and I didn't leap to catch it because there was a considerable chance I'd fall off. I got into heaps of trouble for the paint disaster, but actually it was just a decision that had to be made with risks & problems either way. No one said "that situation was impossible! I'm glad you chose not to fall off the roof!" - but maybe they should have.
Gosh this is getting long-winded! What I'm trying to say is that when you said you "always make bad decisions" that struck a chord with me. I think that's what things look like when you are always blamed/punished/criticized, by others or yourself, for the inevitable down-side to ANY decision. But we always choose stuff because we know there's an up-side too, even if it involves compromise in difficult, imperfect situations.
Soooo... maybe the key here is not in trying to find the perfect decision, but in keeping your eyes open about what could be risked, lost and gained by moving either way, and trusting yourself that you are allowed to make a decision about this (and to talk it over with others!
).
You might get hurt either way... I find it easier to deal with hurt when I know that I put myself at that risk because I *want* certain things out of my life....
Ok, I'll stop rabbiting on now. Sorry for the lecture; clearly I needed to hear this MYSELF!